You might have heard about how the UAW and Volkswagen finally reached a tentative agreement for a contract last week in Chattanooga. In a video announcement and blog post, Shawn Fain crowed about “a life-changing first agreement” and “a historic breakthrough for Southern autoworkers” with 20% raises that make for great headlines that don’t tell the real story.
What Fain aims to do here is erase the nearly two-year mess involving the Southern foreign-owned auto plant unionized by the UAW. That vote happened in Apr. 2024, and some workers grew so frustrated that they gathered signatures for a decertification petition. They further alleged that the union wouldn’t allow them to vote on VW’s Oct. 2025 final offer, so let’s compare that company offer with the tentative agreement.
The Math of Those Raises Doesn’t Add Up to “Historic”
First, it’s worth looking back at the UAW’s campaign to organize Mercedes-Benz workers in Alabama. Fain had criticized 6% annual raises as “meager” and indicative of “the Alabama discount.” (And then these workers surprised him by voting against unionizing.)
Well, you’d think that the UAW’s “historic” tentative deal with VW would offer higher raises than the ones that received Fain’s disapproval, but that’s not the case. Instead, these VW workers would receive a 20% increase spread over four years, which averages out to 5% annually. Once you subtract union dues–outlined in the UAW’s constitution as two hours of pay or up to 1.44% per month–the net increase isn’t effectively higher than the 3-4% annual increases that are standard for many employers.
Tellingly, Volkswagen’s ”last, best, and final” offer also included a 20% wage boost over four years. At the time, that wasn’t enough for the union, which persuaded its workers to authorize a strike.
Then there’s the subject of bonuses. VW had offered a $4,000 ratification bonus, first-ever COLA benefits, and profit sharing. VW even offered to increase the bonus to $5,550 for timely ratification. In contrast, the UAW’s deal resulted in a $6,550 one-time bonus and $2,550 in annual bonuses.
Yes, those are larger bonuses, but workers lost the time value of earlier opportunities after waiting nearly two years for a contract. There’s also the lingering question of whether the VW raises will be retroactive, although it seems like if this was the case, Fain would have bragged about it, just like he did in 2023 when the Big Three automaker deals were announced.
When “Wins” Look a Lot Like What Was Already Offered
The UAW press release claims a deal with “significant improvements over the company’s proposal in October.” However, the core wage increase remains identical. Healthcare improvements were also part of VW’s final offer, which included reduced premiums. The bonus structure has been adjusted, but the total compensation package is very similar to what the company offered before strike authorization.
So, it sounds like VW workers are being asked to ratify a deal that’s remarkably like what the company offered, only repackaged with different bonus structures and no mention of VW’s offered profit sharing.
Conclusion: What This Means for Southern Organizing
Fain previously declared that the future of the union “hangs in the balance” of this contract. If that’s true, members should ask why their union spent nearly two years arriving at roughly the same destination offered by VW.
Fain also made no secret of his dream to double his union’s size by organizing autoworkers in the South. Now, he’s asking VW workers to accept a deal with few meaningful results. These workers might be disappointed, yet they’re likely also exhausted by the wait. They might reason that this tentative agreement is better than nothing and vote “yes.”
However, “better than nothing” is a sad state, and this tentative agreement is hardly a compelling pitch for workers of other foreign-owned automakers that Fain vowed to unionize. Yet the UAW has made it clear that they will continue trying to organize the South. We’ll be watching to see whether their lackluster contract results fail to impress targeted workers.
