Union Organizing Isn’t Slowing Down. It’s Getting Smarter.
After years of headline-grabbing momentum, union organizing has entered a more strategic phase. Win rates are still high. Election volume is down. And unions are choosing their targets far more carefully.
In a new feature for SHRM, entitled Union Organizing Recalibrates to More Selective Campaigns, Michael VanDervort breaks down what the data is really telling us about union organizing. This is not a retreat. It is a recalibration.
Key takeaways from the article:
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Union election win rates continue to hover near 80 percent
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Representation elections declined roughly 30 percent year over year in 2025
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Newly organized workers dropped sharply because campaigns became smaller and more selective
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Health care remains the most active sector, with unions winning 88 percent of elections, often in small, specialized units
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The most reliable organizing signals remain internal, not political or regulatory
The practical message for HR and labor relations leaders is blunt. Fewer campaigns do not equate to less risk. It often means less warning.
Selective organizing is harder to spot early, easier to underestimate, and more likely to succeed once it reaches the ballot.
Read the full article on SHRM: (membership required)
https://www.shrm.org/topics-tools/employment-law-compliance/union-organizing-recalibrates-to-more-selective-campaigns
