Q1 2026 NLRB Data Is In. Here Is What It Is Telling Us, and What We Will Be Watching
Three months of data does not tell you where the year is going. It tells you what questions to ask.
That is the right way to read LRI RightNow’s First Quarter 2026 NLRB Elections and Petitions Review. Not as a verdict on 2026, but as the opening chapter of a story that Q2 and Q3 will continue to write.
Let’s take a look at some of the numbers.
Fewer Campaigns, Higher Stakes per Campaign
Union representation petitions dropped 11% compared to Q1 2025, from 538 to 479. At the same time, the petition-to-election conversion rate climbed from 68.8% to 78.1%. Unions filed fewer and took nearly all of it to a vote.
The Union’s win rate in RC elections was 77.5%, consistent with its 2025 finish. Total workers organized through Q1 fell 28% year over year, largely because targeted unit sizes were smaller on average. Whether the petition decline is a strategic shift or a seasonal dip is one of the things Q2 will start to answer.
The Teamsters: Most Active, Most Complicated
The Teamsters were involved in 87 representation elections in Q1 2026. Their petition activity tells an even bigger story: 119 RC petitions filed, signaling the campaigns already in the pipeline will keep them at the top of the activity charts heading into Q2 2026.
But look at the rest of the numbers. Their win rate was 74%, below the overall RC average of 77.5%. They faced seven decertification elections and lost three. For a union that has spent two years projecting strength and momentum, those cracks are worth noting.
One quarter does not make a trend. The Teamsters remain formidable. But there is a tension between the story they have been telling about themselves and what is happening at the ballot box. If that gap persists into Q2 and Q3, it becomes a more interesting story. If the numbers revert, it was noise. We will be watching.
Where the Activity Is Concentrated
The national win rate is useful context. The state, regional, and unit-size numbers are where practitioners actually live.
Region 19, covering the Pacific Northwest, led all NLRB regions with 48 RC elections. Oregon posted a 91% union win rate, the highest among states with meaningful volume. Washington had 30 elections, with an 87% success rate. Ohio ranked 88% among high-volume states. New Jersey was the lowest at 68%. A practitioner in Newark is operating in a different environment than one in Portland, even when reading the same national headline.
Small units tell a quieter but significant story. A third of all RC elections occurred in bargaining units with 10 or fewer employees: 121 elections, with a 79% union win rate. Most of that volume is concentrated in Services and Entertainment, Accommodation, and Food Services. These are workplaces with thin management layers and high turnover, where early warning signs of organizing are easy to miss, and the traditional campaign playbook rarely applies.
Healthcare and Social Assistance led all industries with 83 RC elections and an 83% union win rate. That combination has held for several years. Q1 shows no sign of it changing.
What to Watch in Q2
Is the decline in petition volume real or seasonal? If Q2 rebounds sharply, Q1 was a dip. If it holds, something more structural may be shifting in how unions select campaigns.
Do the Teamster numbers stabilize? A 74% win rate and three decertification losses in one quarter are not a crisis. But if the pattern persists, the gap between their public positioning and ballot performance becomes a legitimate story.
Get the Full Petitions and Elections Report
The LRI RightNow Q1 2026 NLRB Elections and Petitions Review covers all RC, RD, and employer-filed elections and petitions, broken down by union, NLRB region, state, industry, and unit size.
Access the full Q1 2026 report at LRIRightNow.com.
LRI RightNow has tracked NLRB elections and petitions data for more than 25 years, gathering certification information directly from the NLRB and its regional offices on a daily basis.
