Union organizing plummeted in 2025, and private sector union density is only 5.9%. Big Labor’s bad news continues with an embarrassing reality on union wages, and this is part of a long, painful slide, in which unions are also failing to win high-profile first contract battles.
Some unions, however, are attempting to overcome their lousy organizing by convincing lawmakers to do their bidding. They aim to “win” without winning a single election, and the labor lab of California showed employers what it looks like when a union manipulates an industry through legislation.
Now New York City is next with even higher stakes.
The California-Dreaming Template
As we have previously detailed, SEIU tried and failed for years to organize the fast-food sector. They then lobbied lawmakers to pass AB 1228, the FAST Recovery Act, which created an illusory union and raised minimum wage for fast-food workers from $16 to $20 per hour on Apr. 1, 2024.
The fallout was swift and, as the California Restaurant Association noted, “entirely predictable.” Employers raised menu prices by up to 8% to absorb higher labor costs, and one Wendy’s franchisee found himself $20,000 over budget on a two-week payroll. Layoffs, reduced hours, and an automation wave followed, which ironically hurt workers by making them compete with technology that AB 1228 made necessary.
Now New York City: $30 Minimum Wage by 2030
In NYC, where the minimum wage is currently $17, unions launched a nearly identical strategy. The NYC City Council introduced Int. No. 757, pushed by Teamsters Local 804 and the Teamsters-affiliated Amazon Labor Union. The bill proposes to hike minimum wage to $30 per hour through two tiers:
Schedule 1 for employers with more than 500 employees:
– $20 on Jan. 1, 2027
– $23 on Jan. 1, 2028
– $26 on Jan. 1, 2029
– $30 on Jan. 1, 2030
Schedule 2 for employers with fewer than 500 employees:
– $19 on Jan. 1, 2027
– $21.50 on Jan. 1, 2028
– $24 on Jan. 1, 2029
– $27 on Jan. 1, 2030
– $29 on Jan. 1, 2031
After that, NYC’s Department of Consumer and Worker Protection will adjust the wage floor annually for inflation with no legislative vote required.
What NYC Employers Are Actually Facing
The projected math is sobering. Assuming a 40-hour week at $30 per hour, minimum wage workers would earn base compensation of $62,400 annually before benefits. For workers currently earning $17, that’s more than a 50% increase in under five years.
One small business owner, whose five restaurants and cocktail lounge employ 200 New Yorkers, warned that the bill will cause an unsustainable barrier to entrepreneurship: “It’s just going to get to the stage where a chef or a waitress or a bartender who has a dream of opening a restaurant—it’s just not possible.” Plainly, NYC is looking at a business model crisis.
Naturally, the Teamsters and ALU were front and center when the bill was announced at City Hall. NYC has at least 20 Amazon warehouses, and the motive isn’t hard to read. ALU wants credit for a “win” after unionizing just one warehouse four years ago, with no contract to show for it.
Employers, Take Note
This bill will not address NYC’s notoriously high cost of living or doing business. It’s also hard to imagine consumers embracing rising prices, which will leave employers to shoulder the difference.
NYC Mayor Mamdani has made no secret of his willingness to sign the bill. The fallout in California was predictable and will be equally predictable in New York.
