Shawn Fain is counting on the UAW’s tentative deals with the Big Three to help him “pull out all the stops” to organize union-free automakers. Those targets include Honda, Toyota, and especially Tesla. The latter is key for a union that aims to stay relevant during the EV transition. Fain also wants to return to the “glory days” of 1.5 million members rather than the current 380,000 – a number that is substantially padded via far-removed industries.
He shouldn’t rest easy yet. Sure, the tentative agreements feature “historic” raises, but 25% wage increases (between now and 2028) are far less than the initial 40% union demand. That realization might be setting in for workers who lived on $500 strike pay for less than desired results.
Pre-and-post-strike approval: The UAW proudly declared that 97% of its members voted “overwhelmingly” to strike. Yet according to union tallies, the actual Big Three deals have reportedly received only 58% approval from union members who voted thus far with elections still running. It’s also worth wondering if some “yes” votes were down to the sunk-cost fallacy.
Further, it’s difficult to gauge exactly how the true tally is going, since not every local post its results, and only the final tally matters. It is, however, noteworthy that a majority of workers at some plants chose to reject their proposed contract, and some “wins” at individual plants could probably better be characterized by an “I guess so” sentiment.
Those mixed results thus far: The first Ford plant that went on strike has now voted 82% to ratify their contract. However, a Ford Chicago plant saw workers vote to ratify their deal with a non-overwhelming 57% victory.
GM workers have been expressing even more hesitation, particularly over the “carrot” of a $5000 instant bonus that, after taxes and union dues, will essentially be cut in half. Also, workers at two GM plants – Flint Engines (48%-52%) and Romulus Propulsion Systems (49%-51%) – rejected their contract, possibly due to underwhelming retirement benefits.
The UAW deals with the Big Three could very well pass, yet with individual plants voting contract results down, there exists a cautionary tale for those autoworkers that the union now aims to woo.
Effects on other automakers: Union-free automakers are beginning to sweeten their own workers’ pots with raises. As such, Honda workers will gain 11%, with Toyota coming in at 9.2%, and Subaru is still considering their next move. Will this be enough to stay union-free?
President Biden hopes not. He tossed Fain a hearty congrats after being the first sitting U.S. president to join a picket line. He also encouraged Toyota and Tesla workers to unionize. Biden clearly wants the UAW’s endorsement so badly that it’s practically a spectator sport to watch.
“I hope you guys have a memory,” Biden previously declared to striking auto workers. Hopefully, union-free workers will recall that Biden forced a railway deal that left members without a week of annual sick pay. A lack of an overwhelmingly positive UAW ratification vote won’t help his or Fain’s cases, either. We shall see how this all shakes out as voting continues.
