The Employee Free Choice Act is inching closer to becoming a reality. The latest polls, taken after the $700 billion bailout of the financial markets failed to pass the House, show Obama’s lead in the polls growing to between 6% and 8%. It is now looking much more likely that Obama will win the presidential election. The remaining question is the composition of the Senate and what this will mean for employers.
As of today there are 10 seats currently held by Republicans that are in serious jeopardy. Virginia and New Mexico are almost certainly gone. Alaska seemed a certain looser until Sarah Pailin was chosen to run for Vice President. Her popularity in Alaska could bring out enough people to vote for her and thereby carry Ted Stevens back into office in spite of his age (85) and legal problems, but he is still behind in the polls.
Colorado and New Hampshire seem to be gone although there is some reason for hope in each state as long as McCain can remain very competitive. However the Democrat has led in both states for months.
In North Carolina Elizabeth Dole’s ratings have been dropping like a rock since she held a 14-point lead in July. She is currently in a virtual tie with State Senator Kay Hagan and has completely lost the momentum in the race.
That leaves Minnesota, Mississippi, Oregon and Maine. Maine looks reasonably good but the other three are extremely close. Mississippi is a solid Republican state but former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove has consistently led in the polls and a large African-American turnout could easily put him over the top. Oregon and Minnesota are both leaning Democratic in the presidential race and if Obama has any coattails that could be enough to put both Democrats in the winners circle.
This leaves the Senate landscape as follows:
Virginia: Solid Democrat
New Mexico: Solid Democrat
Alaska: Probable Democrat
Colorado: Probable Democrat
New Hampshire: Probable Democrat
North Carolina: Toss-up but likely Democrat
Minnesota: Toss-up
Mississippi: Toss-up
Oregon: Toss-up
Maine – Probable Republican
If the Democrats can hold the leads they currently have they will have 58 seats in the next Senate. If they can also win two of the three toss-up states they will have 60 seats and the filibuster-proof majority to allow them to pass the Employee Free Choice Act, and perhaps an even stronger version than the original.
