But, the Obama lead now looks too formidable to overcome. With just three weeks left until the election Obama leads McCain by an average of 7.4 points in nationwide polling and even excluding toss-up states has enough electoral votes to win the presidency.
This leaves the Senate as the last firewall to prevent passage of the Employee Free Choice Act and that doesn’t look good either.
Since last week two more Republican Senate seats came into play in unexpected places. In Georgia, incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss has held a 20-point lead against challenger Jim Martin throughout the race. But in late September a poll showed Chambliss’ job rating at 27% good/excellent to 37% fair/poor. A few days later a different poll showed the race to be a statistical dead heat with Chambliss leading 45% to 44%. Finally a third poll taken October 5-7 gave Chambliss a three point lead 47% to 44%, well within the margin of error.
The second seat to come into play in the last week is Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell began the year with a substantial lead over challenger Bruce Lunsford and although the race tightened some it was usually between high single and low double digits. But last week the Louisville Courier-Journal released the results of a poll showing McConnell with a one-point lead. While it is unlikely that McConnell has lost all of his previous lead in one week the race is tightening and may now be in the toss-up category.
This leaves the Senate landscape as follows:
Virginia – Solid Democrat (+28%)
New Mexico – Solid Democrat (+16%)
Colorado – Probable Democrat (+6%)
New Hampshire – Probable Democrat (+6%)
Alaska – Likely Democrat (+4%)
North Carolina – Likely Democrat (+4%)
Minnesota – Likely Democrat (+5%)
Oregon – Toss-up (D +1%)
Kentucky – Toss-up (R +1%)
Mississippi – Likely Republican (R +4%)
Georgia – Likely Republican (R +4%)
Maine – Solid Republican (R +15%)
From the standpoint of the Employee Free Choice Act the picture is very similar to last week but it is disturbing that two seemingly safe Republican seats have come into play. If the Democrats win all the states where they currently hold a lead (8) they will control 58 seats in the next Congress. When combined with the two Independents who supported the legislation last year the Republicans will be unable to stop passage and it will become law by the middle of 2009. If the trend continues and the Democrats win the remaining toss-up state and either Mississippi or Georgia they will not even need the Independents.
