This week the EFCA discussion is focusing primarily on whether there is enough support to pass it uncompromised in the 111th Congress. There are fewer co-sponsors this time and some of the key Democratic votes are a little squishy at this (admittedly very early) point in the game.
There are two schools of thought about how this might play out. One is that a compromise version will get voted on soon (one was quietly introduced in the House this week). The other scenario, and the one that I think is more likely, is that unions will want to count noses (and perhaps even force a filibuster) on the full monty before allowing any compromise at all.
The idea behind the latter strategy is this: Unions have spent a hell of a lot of money to buy this piece of legislation and they are looking for a return on that investment. They are also tired of getting left at the altar by their “friends” in Congress. So force a vote on cloture first – putting maximum pressure on moderates on both sides of the aisle – with a clear message that a vote against cloture is a vote for a major primary opponent in your next election. If Republicans filibuster it, so much the better (makes them look obstructionist, not to mention it’s kind of tough to say you are protecting the right to vote by preventing a vote on a bill…). Then, if EFCA doesn’t have the 60 votes it needs, they get some compromise version of it passed now and then roll up their sleeves for 2010 (if you are wondering which states will see a huge uptick in organizing after it passes just read on…).
What about 2010? Here are the vitals:
36 seats will be up for election, 19 Republican and 17 Democrat. The consensus tossups races are all Republican:
Mel Martinez (FL)
Jim Bunning (KY)
Kit Bond (MO)
Judd Gregg (NH)
George Voinovich (OH)
Specter (PA) is a key vote for unions on EFCA and he is probably in trouble no matter what he does. Specter – who will be 80 in 2010 – will be seeking his sixth term. He was diagnosed with cancer in 2005 and again in 2008 and barely beat Pat Toomey in the 2004 primary (Toomey is probably going to run again in 2010).
So these states will be where all the action is in 2010 (and probably hotbeds for organizing activity in the meantime – you know, growing the grass roots…). We’ll obviously be keeping you posted. We’ll be posting a status report on the bills in the sidebar of the blog.
